On Saturday The New York Times published an article titled "Has the Economy Hit Bottom Yet?" In the article various economists describe possible scenarios that could signal the end of the current economic downturn. The contributors to the article discuss how various changes in stocks, homes prices and consumer spending could indicate that the bottom is in. One analyst cites demand for copper as a sign of a recovery while another mentions a flattening in the saving rate. It is interesting that none of them mentions employment.
Without a decline in the number of people unemployed, it would seem difficult to hit a bottom. Rising unemployment spreads paranoia about the future for both the people that have lost their jobs but also for those who continue to have work but see their friends and family losing their jobs. This uncertainty is what has fueled many people to stop shopping at the mall and instead increase their saving. Without more jobs this economy will have a long way to go to get to a bottom.
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